No guest this week. Just Jamie and Justin working through what’s actually going to happen in the automotive industry in 2026.
The prediction market debut
Jamie came in with five automotive prediction questions — built with help from Claude — and the two hosts went on record with their takes. The format is simple: two people have to disagree for a market to exist. If they both say yes or both say no, there’s nothing to bet on.
The five questions:
1. US new vehicle sales — Will total US new vehicle sales exceed 16 million units in 2026? Jamie: yes. Justin: no (gas prices heading toward $5, conflict in the Middle East). Market exists.
2. Detroit Big Three cuts — Will any of the Detroit Three OEMs announce a plant closure or layoffs exceeding 5,000 workers in 2026? Both said no. No market.
3. Camaro returns — Will GM bring the Camaro back in any form before 2027? Justin has Chevrolet as a client and formally abstained. He was legally required to. Justin thought about it and said no anyway — 18 months is too fast to build a car.
4. NASCAR manufacturer title — Will a non-Detroit brand win the NASCAR Cup manufacturer’s championship in 2026 or 2027? Justin said yes (Jordan Brand runs Toyotas). Jamie said no. Market exists.
5. Aftermarket revenue — Will the aftermarket performance parts industry report year-over-year revenue growth for 2026? Both said yes. Both bullish. No market.
The bigger idea: prediction markets as a format for automotive community engagement. Who wins the grudge race, which car gets released when, what does the performance parts market do — all of it could live on Polymarket or Kalshi. The internet could get in on the bet.
Episode recaps
Jamie and Justin took time to process some of their recent guest conversations that they didn’t get to react to in the moment.
Donnie Walsh Jr. — 36 years in the industry, a legacy business that’s still adapting. The episode surfaced how companies that built their reputation on trust and craftsmanship are now figuring out how to position themselves in a media-first world.
Les Rudd — The conversation that made both hosts realize most shops and newer manufacturers are not using manufacturer’s reps the way they should. There’s a whole layer of distribution infrastructure that the legacy guys grew up with that newer operators don’t even know exists.
Ty Damon (Jack Martin) — Tens of millions in OEM ad deals, a career path through brands most people only dream about. If you’re in the automotive marketing space and you haven’t heard this episode, go back.
Johnny D — The motivational and culture episode. Feedback has been strong. The connection between leadership mindset and business performance is real, and Johnny brought it in a way that resonated beyond just the automotive crowd.
Automotive photography and brand identity
The conversation drifted into territory that doesn’t get discussed enough: why the right photographer isn’t a budget line item, it’s a brand decision.
Justin made the point from experience — when you’re being pitched by three photographers for a campaign and their portfolios look nothing like each other, you realize quickly that what you’re choosing isn’t just a style. You’re choosing what your brand looks like for the next year. Strong creative directors understand this. Brands that cut corners on photography end up with assets that don’t compound.
The corollary for shops and smaller brands: if your product photos look generic, your brand looks generic. The investment isn’t in the shoot. It’s in the identity the shoot creates.
Market watch
Both hosts are bullish on the aftermarket in 2026, but with a caveat.
The industry feels strong — shows are packed, new cars are everywhere, major media companies are reporting double-digit revenue growth. But the gap between businesses that are winning and businesses that are struggling seems to be getting wider. If you’re flat or down, it’s not because the market is bad. It’s because someone else is taking your share.
The banks are still financing expensive vehicles. Collectibles and performance cars are still appreciating. People are spending at events. The music hasn’t stopped — but both Jamie and Justin noted the importance of keeping some reserve for when it does.
Grand Theft Auto and the video game opportunity
GTA VI is about to drop. A billion dollars in sales in the first three days — and the previous game still generates $500 million a year from in-game modifications.
The automotive industry has largely ignored this channel. It shouldn’t. Brands that have gotten into Gran Turismo and sim racing have found new audiences that are young, enthusiastic, and spending. The Supra from Fast and Furious was iconic partly because of the video game versions. The skyline too.
The opportunity isn’t just product placement. It’s building an audience before they have money. By the time they’re 25 and buying their first performance car, they already know your brand.
Communication styles and meeting best practices
A quick tactical section on something that costs teams more time than they realize: not knowing how the people around you prefer to communicate.
Email, text, call, video — the hierarchy means different things to different people. Some clients only text. Some only email. Knowing which is which prevents things from falling through the cracks and keeps relationships from getting strained when something time-sensitive gets lost in the wrong channel. Same applies inside teams.
Camera-on versus camera-off on Zoom is a smaller version of the same thing. More presence, more accountability. Less presence, more distance. Neither is wrong — but knowing what a team expects makes the difference.
AI Watch
The robot conversation. After recording the Donnie Walsh Jr. episode, Jamie and Donnie went to dinner. The conversation turned to the technician shortage — the same problem every shop in the country is dealing with. Jamie asked: what if you could buy an AI-powered shop robot for $100,000 that could perform any modification, learn a custom job once and repeat it flawlessly? Donnie’s answer, without hesitation: I’d buy one tomorrow morning.
The implication hits hard when you’ve been working on workforce development programs that reach hundreds of thousands of students. The technician shortage isn’t a pipeline problem alone. The industry will need technology to bridge the gap, and the shops that adopt early will have a structural cost and capacity advantage.
The pace of change. Justin made the point that AI feels like a technology where the gap between early adopters and everyone else is growing faster than people can close it. He and others who are staying current on the tools are increasingly encountering capabilities they’ve never heard of. The HPX AI panel is built around practical, actionable applications — not the theoretical future, but what you can use in your shop or business right now.
HPX preview. The High Performance Expo AI panel is 30 days out. Justin is moderating. The goal is to bring people from where most shops are — aware of AI but not using it — to having real tools they can implement the next week.
Drop your automotive prediction in the comments on YouTube. We want to build this market out.
